In his statement on the situation in the war-torn country, he said that 22,500 Indian citizens have returned safely from Ukraine.
National Stock Exchange (NSE) chief Ashishkumar Chauhan on Friday cautioned retail investors against trading in derivatives and suggested them to invest in equities through mutual fund route. He emphasized that trading in Futures & Options (F&O) derivatives should be limited to informed investors who can manage risk and comprehend the market. Recently, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran flagged the growing risk of F&O trading for retail investors.
India's foreign exchange reserves declined $1.15 billion to $571.56 billion for the week ended July 22, according to RBI data. The reserves has been declining amid continuing volatility in the rupee which has also significantly depreciated against the US dollar. In the previous reporting week, the overall reserves had declined by $7.54 billion to $572.71 billion.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to maintain the status quo on policy rates for the fourth consecutive time in its October 4-6 review meeting. The incremental information available since its last meeting in August suggests that growth and inflation prints for the second quarter (Q2) of financial year 2023-24 (FY24) will exceed the committee's projections. However, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected to moderate in the second half (H2) of FY24.
The ban on export of onion will continue till its previously announced deadline of March 31 as the government is keen to keep prices under check and ensure domestic availability, a top official said on Tuesday. On December 8, 2023, the government had banned export of onion till March 31. "Ban on onion exports has not been lifted. It is in force and there is no change in the status," consumer affairs secretary Rohit Kumar Singh told PTI.
Brent crude oil prices may rise to $110 a barrel in 2023, up nearly 33 per cent from the current levels, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, in a recent note. This is, however, lower than the peak level of nearly $127 touched earlier in 2022 as geopolitical concerns took centre stage amidrising demand. "Looking ahead, Brent oil price growth will decelerate even more in the coming quarters. "This comes even as our global oil strategist expects a rise in oil prices back to $110 a barrel by the second half of 2023.
'For equities, inflation trending upwards but within the range of expectations can actually be a big positive as it helps earnings and may shift flows from bonds to equities.'
The wholesale price-based inflation rose for the second consecutive month in February to 4.17 per cent, as food, fuel and power prices spiked. The WPI inflation was 2.03 per cent in January and 2.26 per cent in February last year. After witnessing months of softening of prices, the food articles in February saw 1.36 per cent inflation. In January it was (-) 2.80 per cent.
'The recent correction in indices has made the markets cheaper to invest for the long term.'
The quarter was marked by adverse foreign exchange rates and commodity prices, higher depreciation and higher sales promotion expenses.
'The potential headwind is that the Indian economy is likely to see a slowdown in growth rates over the next two years.'
'If you invest in sovereign gold bond, you are going to get the price rise of gold over an eight year period.' 'You're also going to get that two-and-a-half percent which the Government of India is willing to give you, treating the money that you've invested in the sovereign gold bond as a kind of a FD or a deposit.' 'That kind of return you can never get anywhere else.'
The wholesale price-based inflation rose to a four-month high of 14.55 per cent in March, mainly due to hardening of crude oil and commodity prices, even though vegetables witnessed easing of price pressures. As per the government data released on Monday, WPI inflation has remained in double digits for the 12th consecutive month beginning April 2021. The last time such a level of WPI was recorded was in November 2021, when inflation was 14.87 per cent.
Benchmark indices gained for the third day running on Friday, with the Sensex climbing over 300 points amid mixed global market trends. The 30-share BSE benchmark advanced 303.38 points or 0.56 per cent to settle at 54,481.84. During the day, it jumped 448.68 points or 0.82 per cent to 54,627.14. The broader NSE Nifty went higher by 87.70 points or 0.54 per cent to end at 16,220.60.
The value of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) in Indian equities was at $542 billion in the March quarter of 2023, a decline of 11 per cent from the preceding year, largely due to the exodus of foreign money from the domestic market, according to a Morningstar report. In comparison, the value of FPI in Indian equities was $612 billion in the January-March quarter of 2022. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the value of FPI in Indian equities fell by 7 per cent from $584 billion recorded in the three months ended December 2022.
Tata Motors on Tuesday said it will increase prices of its passenger vehicles by an average of 0.9 per cent with effect from January 19, in order to partially offset the impact of rise in input costs. The Mumbai-based automaker sells various models like Tiago, Punch and Harrier, in the domestic market. Effective January 19, 2022, an average increase of 0.9 per cent will be implemented, depending on the variant and model, the automaker said in a statement.
For now, the upside appears to offset damage done to exports by weaker global demand.
While the four largest listed paint companies have seen marginal negative returns, the S&P BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) and the National Stock Exchange Nifty FMCG indices have delivered a solid 16 per cent return during the same period. Initially, volume growth and reduced costs bolstered the sector's sentiment, but brokerages have grown cautious due to increased competitive pressures.
'As the Indian economy continues to expand over the next three years, mid- and small-caps should do well as they have higher exposure to the domestic economy than large-caps.'
Let's take a look at some commodities and see how they are expected to perform in the next two years.
The outbreak of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus and unprecedented lockdowns in China have roiled its equity market and also that of Hong Kong. After the crisis-hit Sri Lanka, China and Hong Kong are the worst-performing stock markets in Asia on a year-to-date basis.
Companies manufacturing fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) continue to see rural stress sustain and it continues to trail urban demand. At the Confederation of Indian Industry's FMCG summit, managements of various companies pointed out urban demand continued to grow while rural demand remained under pressure because incomes were under stress in rural areas. "Due to rural stress, volumes continue to remain an issue for the industry and we are yet to see any revival in demand," Sudhir Sitapati, managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) at Godrej Consumer Products
Domestic demand for goods and services in the country is likely to increase in FY'10 on account of a possible sharp decline in commodity prices globally and reduction in prices of branded goods, an economic think-tank has said. Most of the demand-related problems, which the industry faced following the worsening of the global liquidity crisis in September 2008, were temporary in nature, the report said.
Companies are not able to pass on the pressure from rising input costs to buyers, and this is likely to result in a compression in corporate profit margins for the March quarter, a report said on Monday. Operating profit margins for companies are set to fall by as much as 3 percentage points compared to the year-ago period, and up to 0.60 per cent as compared to the preceding December quarter, the research wing of rating agency Crisil said in a report. The report comes ahead of the earnings season when major companies start reporting their profits.
India's rupee is likely to remain under pressure due to high prices of crude oil and other commodities, and may stabilise at around 79-80 against the US dollar in the near term, say experts amid limited headroom available with the Reserve Bank to check the weakening of the domestic currency. The currency has slumped over 5 per cent this year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent international crude oil prices soaring to a decade high. On Monday, rupee ended at a fresh all-time low of 78.34 (provisional) against the US dollar.
The government has banned exports of onion till March next year with a view to increase domestic availability and to keep prices in check. "Export policy of onions... is amended from free to prohibited till March 31, 2024," the Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) said in a notification. Local vendors in the national capital are selling onions at Rs 70-Rs 80 per kg.
India's exports are unlikely to get an immediate boost from a depreciating rupee, which touched an all-time low on Monday, driven by rising commodity prices. The rupee fell to 76.97 against the dollar earlier in the day, settling 1.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 on Monday at $139 per barrel, after the US and European allies explored a Russian oil import ban, while delays in the potential return of Iranian crude oil to global markets increased supply fears.
Dollar fell below 100 yen for the first time in more than 12 years forcing investors to shift money out of dollar assets. Current estimates of money in asset-tracking commodities are about $110-130 billion globally and this is expected to grow by about 30 per cent over the next year.
Many individual states experienced higher inflation than the all-India figures during the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). Retail inflation figures in Telangana, Haryana, Rajasthan and Dadra and Nagar Haveli have been higher than national numbers every month of this financial year, shows a Business Standard analysis of state-wise figures, after the March inflation data was released on Friday. Experts noted that persistent high food inflation along with differences in the weights of rural and urban indices plays into the regional variation in inflation rates.
Overseas investors have pulled out a net Rs 1,14,855.97 crore from the Indian markets in the current year so far, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. Foreign portfolio investors have sold domestic equities worth Rs 48,261.65 crore so far this month, taking the year-to-date tally this year to a massive Rs 114,855.97 crore, according to depositories data. The exodus of foreign investors was largely owing to inflationary pressures and deepening global macroeconomic conditions following the Russia-Ukraine war, experts said.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Tuesday said the securities transaction tax (STT) will be increased on futures and options (F&O) trade from October 1 to discourage retail investors from investing in the risky instrument.
The benchmark indices have rallied 28 per cent this year, while the broader market has outperformed
Capital goods companies in their Q2FY24 results are expected to report another steady quarter of earnings growth as order inflows and execution remain healthy, according to analysts. An upward revision in order inflow targets and a margin improvement due to lower raw material costs are also anticipated. "We expect the execution of all capital goods companies and most EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) companies to remain healthy Y-o-Y (year-on-year), led by strong order book accretion in the past 5-6 quarters," wrote analysts at Kotak Securities in a note, estimating revenue growth of 32 per cent for India's largest company in the capital goods space -- Larsen & Toubro.
The net sales growth declines 4.4% in September quarter, the second worst in eight years.
Investment in the Indian capital markets through participatory notes dropped to Rs 88,398 crore month-on-month in February amid higher valuation of domestic markets. This was the third consecutive monthly decline in the investment level. Before this, investment through the route had been on an increasing trend since July 2022 because of a slump in the oil and other commodities prices and the relative outperformance of Indian equity markets.
As we say shalom to 2016, the key drivers for the markets in the year ahead have become more obvious, says Neeraj Gambhir, managing director and head of fixed income, India, Nomura. First, there is a surging dollar. Second, rising commodity prices. Then, we have the effects of demonetisation.
India's national commodity exchanges will have to now wait longer for the government nod for foreign direct investment.
'We have relatively strong growth and a healthy corporate earnings cycle as positives, but a worrisome current account deficit and high inflation as challenges.'
